Healthy Returns: Eli Lilly could soon become the first $1 trillion health-care stock

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Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway topped $1 trillion in market value, the first non-tech company in the U.S. to do so. Soon, pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly could become the first health-care company to join that club. 

Why? Eli Lilly is riding the soaring demand for its injectable weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes medication Mounjaro, which are incretin drugs that mimic hormones produced in the gut to tamp down appetite and regulate blood sugar. Revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound now account for almost 40% of Eli Lilly’s total sales, according to its second-quarter results in August.  

The company is one of two dominant players in the weight loss drug market, which some analysts believe could be worth $150 billion by the end of the decade. Eli Lilly may also be pulling ahead of its main rival, Novo Nordisk, as it shows progress toward expanding the supply of its drugs. 

Novo Nordisk is also investing billions to boost manufacturing. But its own weight loss and diabetes drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, missed sales expectations for the second quarter in part due to pricing pressure in the U.S. 

Investors are also encouraged by the other possible health benefits of Eli Lilly’s treatments, which could boost their long-term revenue potential. The company has released several study results over the last year showing Zepbound’s promise as a treatment for obesity-related conditions such as obstructive sleep apnea, fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease. 

Shares of Eli Lily have soared more than 60% this year, putting its market value at nearly $900 billion. 

And the company could reach that $1 trillion mark soon. Eli Lilly’s stock soared almost 10% on Aug. 8 following its second-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. The drugmaker could post another blowout quarter on Oct. 30. 

Shares could also get a boost from potential data and regulatory approvals. For example, Eli Lilly expects the Food and Drug Administration to make a decision on whether to approve Zepbound for sleep apnea by the end of the year. 

Eli Lilly could potentially release data from a late-stage trial that pits Zepbound directly against Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy by the end of the year, according to an Aug. 20 note from Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger. 

Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to Annika at annikakim.constantino@nbcuni.com.

It’s raining continuous glucose monitors! 

Abbott Laboratories on Thursday announced its first over-the-counter continuous glucose monitor Lingo is available in the U.S., just days after its competitor Dexcom launched a similar product.

Continuous glucose monitors are small sensors that stick through the skin to measure real-time glucose levels. The devices have traditionally been prescribed to diabetes patients since they can help alert those users to emergencies. Lingo is more consumer friendly, as it’s meant for adults who are not taking insulin. 

Glucose is a sugar molecule that comes from food, and it’s the body’s main source of energy. Everyone’s glucose levels fluctuate, but consistently elevated levels can lead to more serious conditions like heart disease, insulin resistance and metabolic disease, Abbott said.

Lingo is designed to help users learn about how their bodies respond to food, exercise, sleep and stress, as well as how they can manage their glucose levels in healthier ways. 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Lingo in June. It’s available without a prescription, and users can buy one sensor online for $49, two sensors for $89 or six sensors for $249.

Dexcom’s new over-the-counter continuous glucose monitor is called Stelo, and the FDA approved it in March. An ongoing Stelo subscription costs $89 a month, and users can also buy a one-month supply for $99 at a time.

I tested out Stelo prior to its launch, and you can read about my experience here. I haven’t tried Lingo yet, but Abbott walked me through the app and how it works. 

One feature that stood out to me is Abbott’s “Lingo Count,” a metric designed to help users understand glucose spikes. That occurs when the amount of sugar present in the bloodstream rapidly increases and then decreases, commonly after eating. 

The Lingo Count algorithm assigns a numeric value to each glucose spike, and it’s supposed to represent how significant the impact of that fluctuation is. Users have a total target Lingo Count that they want to aim to stay below each day, and they can see their progress over time. 

In order to learn how to manage glucose spikes, Lingo users can participate in challenges and access educational materials within the app. I think the challenges could serve as a fun way to engage people around their glucose, and I’m interested to try them for myself. 

On the whole, I thought the app seemed intuitive and helpful. The data is presented in a way that doesn’t feel too complex or overwhelming, and consumers have the option to go deeper if they want.  

I’m planning to test out Lingo later this month, so I’ll have more to share soon!

Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to Ashley at ashley.capoot@nbcuni.com.